* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 09/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 28 32 36 35 30 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 28 32 36 35 30 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 15 15 10 13 13 22 24 24 20 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -5 -5 -3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 101 101 85 83 101 116 159 194 204 222 237 265 276 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.3 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 146 143 139 126 117 114 111 108 105 107 111 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -53.2 -53.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 62 58 56 52 48 42 39 34 30 26 25 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 22 27 32 28 16 21 -1 -6 -7 -5 10 -11 200 MB DIV 76 72 46 25 6 14 8 5 -3 0 -17 -30 -32 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 2 2 3 1 -6 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 659 688 711 748 797 858 891 913 919 890 838 821 799 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.1 21.0 21.6 21.9 21.6 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 112.0 113.5 114.7 115.7 117.4 118.7 119.6 120.3 120.6 120.2 119.6 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 13 11 10 8 6 5 5 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 20 17 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 15. 10. 3. -4. -9. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.4 110.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 09/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.32 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.2% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 09/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##