* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 09/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 33 34 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 33 34 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 14 11 9 17 22 30 33 39 32 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -6 -4 -2 0 -1 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 88 80 81 101 116 162 195 216 224 226 235 234 230 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.6 25.6 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.7 23.6 24.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 142 137 129 118 114 109 102 98 99 105 123 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 64 60 55 50 47 43 38 36 31 29 29 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 23 25 22 16 21 7 1 4 -1 7 8 24 200 MB DIV 67 50 19 10 10 10 14 12 -8 -10 -13 -14 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 2 -5 -21 -12 -5 LAND (KM) 679 676 701 752 776 815 838 850 767 647 473 239 106 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.5 23.3 23.7 23.8 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 113.2 114.5 115.6 116.5 118.1 119.1 119.9 119.9 119.1 117.0 114.4 112.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 12 10 9 8 6 5 5 7 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 14 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 387 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -6. -14. -21. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 14. 12. 4. -7. -17. -24. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.0 111.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 09/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.47 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 5.9% 4.7% 1.6% 0.8% 3.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 09/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##