* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 09/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 26 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 26 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 17 26 36 40 46 58 53 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -4 -4 -1 1 -2 -8 1 2 SHEAR DIR 74 79 107 128 164 193 215 219 232 231 245 257 269 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.7 25.0 24.2 23.1 22.2 26.1 29.8 29.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 133 125 120 111 103 93 85 128 168 160 149 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -53.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 4 1 4 1 700-500 MB RH 60 54 49 45 42 38 36 33 32 36 35 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 17 12 11 4 -4 1 0 17 61 23 -36 200 MB DIV 42 19 9 9 12 16 20 0 9 17 18 0 -6 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 1 2 1 -10 -21 -30 -4 21 30 LAND (KM) 657 675 719 725 739 752 690 527 282 -26 -219 -615 -346 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.2 21.3 22.6 24.1 25.4 26.7 28.3 29.9 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.6 115.8 116.7 117.5 118.6 118.9 118.3 116.3 112.7 108.3 103.1 98.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 11 9 9 6 7 10 14 19 23 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 362 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -4. -14. -25. -38. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. -3. -15. -27. -37. -42. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.8 113.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 09/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 154.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 4.3% 3.9% 0.9% 0.4% 1.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 09/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##