* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 10/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 24 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 24 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 12 11 13 14 22 23 27 26 29 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -6 -3 -1 -4 -2 -5 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 91 101 109 123 138 186 205 225 222 242 236 250 253 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.1 25.4 24.5 23.9 23.9 25.9 27.7 29.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 139 132 124 116 106 100 102 123 140 153 163 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 3 3 7 5 9 700-500 MB RH 61 57 53 50 47 43 36 31 29 34 33 31 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 14 7 -2 -13 -5 -9 -4 20 29 44 36 200 MB DIV 16 12 2 -1 1 13 -3 -7 -8 -10 -12 -13 -22 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 2 1 -2 -8 -26 -13 -5 0 0 LAND (KM) 777 788 797 789 762 702 620 505 295 143 26 42 45 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.9 22.4 23.3 23.8 23.5 23.2 23.4 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.9 115.7 116.4 117.0 117.7 117.8 117.0 115.0 112.5 110.5 109.0 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 11 11 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 21 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -10. -17. -22. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -8. -15. -18. -20. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.0 114.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 10/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 145.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 10/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##