* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972016 10/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 13 13 12 15 22 20 20 14 11 5 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -2 -6 -4 -2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 88 90 98 113 140 176 196 212 218 216 233 278 264 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.4 25.6 24.8 24.4 25.3 26.4 27.2 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 140 133 127 118 109 105 115 126 134 136 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 56 52 49 42 34 29 29 30 30 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 12 10 0 -1 -13 -1 -11 0 2 11 9 27 200 MB DIV 20 7 -2 -13 -3 2 0 -9 -19 -21 -27 -39 -53 700-850 TADV 3 2 5 3 4 5 0 -10 -9 -5 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 751 755 751 748 709 640 553 443 330 326 287 274 331 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 21.0 22.3 23.0 22.7 22.0 21.3 20.8 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.4 115.2 115.8 116.3 117.0 117.0 116.2 114.6 113.3 112.2 111.4 111.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 9 8 7 5 6 8 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 13 5 1 0 0 0 0 4 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -11. -13. -11. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.1 113.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972016 INVEST 10/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 137.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.3% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972016 INVEST 10/01/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##