* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 07/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 36 42 52 57 61 60 61 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 36 42 52 57 61 60 61 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 46 49 52 53 54 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 11 10 14 12 11 7 7 4 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 11 359 345 355 355 344 359 354 340 333 320 5 252 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 161 162 161 160 156 154 153 153 153 153 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 68 65 63 60 62 60 61 65 67 69 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -23 -33 -46 -53 -53 -54 -53 -40 -30 -28 -18 -9 200 MB DIV 57 70 60 42 40 32 16 2 10 -20 0 -17 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 2 1 5 LAND (KM) 364 363 374 401 426 499 580 676 745 777 790 790 809 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 12.8 12.4 11.8 11.4 11.3 11.5 12.3 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 98.1 99.1 100.0 100.8 102.0 102.9 103.7 104.3 104.9 105.8 107.3 109.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 7 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 22 25 29 36 39 40 38 37 33 30 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 27. 32. 36. 35. 36. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 97.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 61.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##