* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 07/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 45 53 59 61 59 58 55 55 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 37 45 53 59 61 59 58 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 39 43 46 49 50 49 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 10 10 17 13 12 10 14 16 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 18 344 346 341 334 353 351 343 326 313 304 298 277 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 162 161 158 154 153 151 151 151 152 147 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 61 62 63 62 65 65 70 70 73 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -31 -46 -50 -45 -48 -49 -45 -37 -28 -21 -11 -12 200 MB DIV 58 51 35 36 36 37 26 23 1 -23 -18 -6 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 2 6 LAND (KM) 319 316 339 358 394 479 560 667 740 786 801 809 878 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.6 13.2 12.5 12.1 12.0 12.5 13.5 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 98.1 99.2 100.2 101.1 101.9 103.3 104.4 105.3 106.0 106.7 107.8 109.5 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 5 7 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 27 30 31 30 35 39 33 30 28 17 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 33. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 28. 34. 36. 34. 33. 30. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 98.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 71.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##