* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 07/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 48 54 56 55 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 48 54 56 55 54 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 38 40 40 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 14 18 13 12 11 10 12 14 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 0 5 3 SHEAR DIR 338 340 330 330 347 351 344 341 326 313 323 332 302 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 164 161 159 153 153 152 151 151 153 154 149 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 64 64 63 63 62 64 67 69 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 3 6 5 6 6 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -43 -44 -40 -37 -40 -46 -43 -43 -34 -34 -36 -30 200 MB DIV 43 13 24 35 34 44 30 23 6 5 -16 11 -28 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 1 1 4 2 2 4 LAND (KM) 252 245 258 298 350 458 591 717 820 915 986 1080 1213 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.1 13.3 12.6 12.1 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.9 100.9 101.8 102.7 104.2 105.4 106.5 107.5 108.6 110.0 111.8 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 6 5 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 32 33 30 27 26 37 31 28 28 28 32 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 23. 29. 31. 30. 29. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 98.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##