* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 07/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 32 38 43 47 47 47 45 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 32 38 43 47 47 47 45 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 32 32 32 30 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 18 15 15 17 13 15 16 18 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -2 1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 342 332 331 344 352 342 336 323 295 304 306 313 295 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 159 156 151 150 150 151 151 151 147 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 64 65 63 64 62 66 67 70 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -50 -45 -38 -41 -37 -39 -47 -40 -33 -27 -26 -20 200 MB DIV 10 15 24 22 31 39 16 8 -1 10 -10 2 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -3 0 0 2 1 3 4 4 4 4 LAND (KM) 290 293 327 371 414 522 641 743 848 930 1055 1159 1224 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.0 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 101.0 102.0 102.9 103.8 105.2 106.5 107.6 108.9 110.4 112.2 114.3 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 30 27 25 31 34 29 29 28 31 18 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 21. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 22. 22. 20. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 100.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##