* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 07/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 38 45 48 52 52 51 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 38 45 48 52 52 51 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 32 33 34 34 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 17 14 15 12 9 10 7 12 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 -4 0 -1 0 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 334 326 337 341 334 339 343 325 317 324 299 296 242 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 159 155 150 148 149 149 150 145 140 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 66 65 67 66 66 68 67 66 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -43 -38 -35 -36 -29 -30 -28 -29 -19 -21 -40 -39 200 MB DIV 19 40 32 21 32 22 7 11 -2 -6 1 -19 25 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 4 LAND (KM) 281 286 316 344 376 454 559 664 738 799 897 884 912 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.8 14.3 15.0 16.0 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.3 102.2 102.9 103.6 105.0 106.4 107.6 108.8 110.3 112.1 114.2 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 28 25 24 24 31 29 26 20 12 8 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 20. 23. 27. 27. 26. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 100.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 65.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##