* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 07/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 51 53 53 51 49 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 51 53 53 51 49 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 34 35 34 33 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 15 14 12 11 13 12 13 12 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -5 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 332 328 328 315 317 317 307 287 284 278 273 237 192 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.7 26.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 159 157 154 150 148 149 149 149 142 131 115 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 66 66 69 68 69 67 70 64 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -42 -39 -34 -29 -30 -21 -22 -21 -13 -27 -30 -31 200 MB DIV 47 45 23 24 25 24 38 0 8 8 10 7 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 4 LAND (KM) 347 372 394 428 455 528 599 672 699 757 757 740 755 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.8 14.3 15.2 16.5 17.9 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.1 102.8 103.5 104.1 105.5 106.6 107.6 108.9 110.6 112.5 114.7 116.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 8 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 29 27 26 31 32 29 23 16 8 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 28. 28. 26. 24. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 101.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.28 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 4.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 65.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 8.8% 4.3% 3.7% 2.3% 4.8% 8.8% 18.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.3% Consensus: 1.0% 10.9% 6.2% 1.3% 0.8% 6.4% 7.7% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##