* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 07/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 33 36 37 37 34 33 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 33 36 37 37 34 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 16 14 12 11 10 12 16 18 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -6 -2 0 -3 0 0 0 -4 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 326 325 313 314 318 296 305 289 284 298 275 253 221 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.8 26.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 157 155 149 146 149 146 141 143 134 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 64 67 66 67 69 69 67 66 65 65 63 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -43 -39 -24 -20 -14 -14 -15 -2 -9 -7 -6 19 200 MB DIV 37 26 14 19 10 25 18 14 33 28 1 20 12 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 386 402 404 417 416 452 531 652 813 888 1003 1135 1253 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.8 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.1 102.6 103.2 103.9 105.5 107.3 109.4 111.5 113.9 116.3 119.1 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 30 28 25 24 27 18 12 8 12 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 9. 8. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 101.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.28 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 62.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.9% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.3% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 3.9% 3.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/16/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##