* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 07/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 29 33 36 39 40 38 38 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 29 33 36 39 40 38 38 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 18 14 14 13 12 13 16 18 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 2 0 -2 1 2 4 3 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 323 308 319 327 321 310 302 301 302 303 264 245 229 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 152 151 150 150 151 150 146 146 146 139 132 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 68 69 66 69 66 69 67 70 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -44 -40 -47 -42 -41 -28 -12 -3 -9 -9 -5 3 200 MB DIV 16 16 21 33 45 38 3 9 -5 -13 -4 7 1 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 1 0 3 2 2 1 2 5 8 LAND (KM) 409 433 463 513 572 679 792 923 1055 1127 1255 1353 1478 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.6 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.9 103.7 104.6 105.4 106.3 107.9 109.5 111.3 113.2 115.5 118.1 120.8 123.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 24 27 31 29 32 42 14 19 15 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 13. 13. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 102.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.7% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 0.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2.8% 3.3% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/16/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##