* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 07/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 39 38 37 36 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 39 38 37 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 22 21 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 20 19 18 15 15 12 11 16 16 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -4 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 310 316 312 312 315 302 294 292 258 241 203 201 190 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.6 26.2 24.9 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 148 149 149 149 145 143 142 127 113 96 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 69 71 71 68 68 72 69 73 69 69 63 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -38 -41 -35 -22 -11 -2 0 -1 -2 14 19 17 200 MB DIV 35 38 24 30 31 11 21 23 21 14 23 -9 10 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 -1 2 1 0 3 2 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 462 488 519 548 588 693 807 943 984 1074 1151 1286 1373 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.4 16.3 17.6 18.7 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.7 105.5 106.2 107.0 108.8 110.6 112.7 115.0 117.5 120.3 122.9 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 12 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 28 29 28 26 22 11 14 15 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 11. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 104.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 60.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 0.1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.0% 2.8% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##