* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 07/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 36 36 33 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 36 36 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 21 20 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 17 16 11 12 10 8 13 20 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -4 0 0 -2 -5 0 1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 321 320 316 319 329 303 319 299 266 223 203 217 240 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.8 26.9 26.0 24.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 148 148 149 148 142 144 135 125 113 101 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 68 69 70 69 68 67 66 63 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -32 -28 -18 -14 -5 10 -1 9 7 29 30 28 200 MB DIV 36 20 23 30 31 12 14 2 5 26 10 -1 7 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -2 -2 3 0 2 3 5 4 6 7 LAND (KM) 476 492 520 550 594 694 813 900 998 1135 1284 1462 1599 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.3 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.0 105.7 106.4 107.2 109.2 111.1 113.5 116.1 119.1 122.0 124.9 127.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 9 9 11 12 14 15 14 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 28 29 28 23 16 8 11 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 11. 11. 8. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 104.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 59.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 2.7% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##