* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 09/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 40 46 56 69 74 76 71 63 52 41 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 40 46 56 69 74 76 71 63 52 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 32 38 44 50 54 56 53 47 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 14 16 12 8 5 9 13 20 17 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 0 -5 -4 7 -1 SHEAR DIR 48 54 57 64 78 134 138 171 126 145 179 195 229 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 28.7 28.2 28.5 28.4 29.3 30.5 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 152 156 158 158 150 143 148 149 159 170 166 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 -49.3 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 60 56 54 53 52 53 49 46 41 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 22 23 24 28 28 27 25 22 14 6 850 MB ENV VOR 21 0 -1 6 20 34 35 54 52 67 45 68 42 200 MB DIV 77 83 93 109 91 55 15 4 23 30 34 55 61 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -9 -4 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 19 LAND (KM) 722 725 672 579 449 281 324 322 341 195 85 28 -219 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.2 17.0 18.8 20.1 20.0 19.9 21.6 24.3 26.5 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.3 110.0 109.3 108.4 107.8 108.8 110.0 109.3 108.7 109.2 109.8 108.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 7 10 11 8 7 3 6 12 14 10 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 22 24 31 17 10 14 11 25 22 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 22.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 18. 18. 18. 14. 10. 1. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 15. 21. 31. 44. 49. 51. 46. 38. 27. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 110.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 09/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.17 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 2.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.96 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.4% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 23.4% 12.8% 4.1% 2.4% 17.5% 21.6% 33.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.2% 1.0% Consensus: 0.9% 15.8% 8.5% 1.4% 0.8% 11.4% 13.2% 11.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 09/13/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##