* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 09/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 51 61 68 75 77 75 67 51 45 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 51 61 68 75 77 75 65 48 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 47 53 59 65 66 59 48 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 15 11 4 1 3 13 14 23 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -2 -2 -5 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 0 7 5 SHEAR DIR 31 46 65 68 74 13 48 102 145 170 173 194 229 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.0 28.5 30.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 153 154 151 148 150 148 144 148 173 164 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -50.9 -51.6 -50.7 -51.0 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 8 11 7 9 6 10 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 55 55 56 59 58 54 46 42 44 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 20 21 23 23 24 24 24 21 11 6 850 MB ENV VOR 29 10 4 15 16 11 28 31 60 42 40 67 18 200 MB DIV 117 108 81 79 75 59 32 23 34 17 34 66 33 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -5 -3 -1 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 -5 -11 15 LAND (KM) 698 681 640 574 507 441 399 368 239 24 44 12 -354 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.5 19.2 19.5 21.0 22.9 24.6 26.2 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 110.5 110.4 110.0 109.6 109.4 109.3 109.1 108.9 109.6 110.2 109.4 106.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 4 2 4 10 10 7 13 19 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 22 20 16 15 17 12 9 14 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. 10. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 31. 38. 45. 47. 45. 37. 21. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 110.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 09/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 174.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 22.8% 15.8% 12.8% 0.0% 19.4% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 19.1% 13.9% 4.7% 3.4% 15.0% 11.6% 29.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.5% 4.1% Consensus: 4.8% 14.9% 10.0% 5.8% 1.1% 11.6% 10.5% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 09/14/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##