* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972017 09/14/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 43 48 61 67 75 76 70 62 48 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 43 48 61 67 75 76 70 58 39 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 38 41 47 53 59 62 60 51 38 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 10 8 2 4 11 13 12 20 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 0 -3 5 6 8 SHEAR DIR 35 67 68 81 90 62 124 151 154 174 187 214 239 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.3 28.5 30.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 151 150 151 154 151 142 136 149 173 161 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 10 700-500 MB RH 56 57 55 57 56 59 61 53 46 42 42 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 20 21 21 25 24 26 26 22 18 7 11 850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 15 10 7 10 23 48 61 33 43 28 13 200 MB DIV 115 79 82 70 74 55 30 31 19 11 47 65 40 700-850 TADV -9 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 -2 -1 31 LAND (KM) 575 522 475 449 452 452 351 302 108 14 32 -85 -494 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.8 20.5 22.0 23.4 24.9 27.1 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.4 109.3 109.3 109.4 109.4 108.6 108.6 109.6 110.5 110.4 108.8 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 5 3 1 2 6 10 8 8 10 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 23 21 20 20 29 20 9 5 25 46 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 11. 14. 13. 8. 3. -9. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 31. 37. 45. 46. 40. 32. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 109.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 09/14/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 181.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 18.7% 14.7% 12.4% 0.0% 19.9% 18.5% 11.6% Logistic: 2.0% 10.1% 6.9% 2.6% 1.2% 24.5% 20.6% 20.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 12.8% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 3.2% 3.0% 6.0% Consensus: 3.5% 13.9% 7.9% 5.2% 0.4% 15.9% 14.0% 12.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 09/14/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##