* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 55 62 68 75 80 82 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 55 62 68 75 80 82 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 33 38 46 55 64 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 8 11 17 12 8 6 14 9 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 -4 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 50 43 74 47 33 56 75 71 46 32 39 23 13 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 153 153 153 152 154 152 151 151 149 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 74 75 74 75 72 72 71 72 73 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 10 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 3 7 6 11 10 7 4 6 9 2 0 200 MB DIV 15 -3 -5 12 3 27 20 16 28 57 77 73 61 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -2 -3 -6 -7 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1126 1155 1232 1327 1437 1604 1852 2104 2346 2519 2524 2404 2285 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.7 11.0 11.8 13.0 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.1 112.4 113.8 115.3 118.7 122.2 125.7 128.8 131.2 132.6 133.3 134.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 16 17 17 16 14 9 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 18 21 23 32 35 21 22 27 35 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 35. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 35. 42. 48. 55. 60. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 110.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 46.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.24 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 20.4% 8.4% 2.4% 0.9% 4.8% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 0.9% 7.6% 3.0% 0.8% 0.3% 1.6% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##