* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 47 54 61 66 71 72 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 47 54 61 66 71 72 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 30 35 40 46 53 59 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 18 17 16 13 7 9 7 8 2 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -1 -2 -2 -4 0 0 -3 -8 -5 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 29 36 47 57 59 49 48 5 3 24 167 269 189 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.3 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 150 149 151 151 152 151 147 138 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 80 81 77 75 72 70 65 64 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 11 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 17 21 25 15 2 -11 0 1 18 40 64 200 MB DIV -19 -23 -3 33 44 34 41 48 77 47 53 47 68 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 -2 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1464 1561 1637 1691 1755 1868 1959 2042 2110 2151 2229 2145 1928 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.2 10.9 11.9 13.2 14.7 15.9 16.7 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.3 116.6 117.9 119.2 121.5 123.7 126.1 128.2 130.3 132.4 134.7 136.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 11 12 13 13 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 25 24 31 28 34 34 23 20 13 18 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 22. 29. 36. 41. 46. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 114.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 31.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##