* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 10/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 3 4 12 19 23 29 23 18 10 5 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 -4 2 0 2 0 -3 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 45 61 219 225 237 251 239 244 229 260 242 261 228 SST (C) 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.3 24.5 23.9 23.5 23.2 22.9 22.3 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 132 130 128 124 117 109 103 97 92 89 84 81 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 66 63 53 48 41 41 38 39 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -21 -27 -35 -23 -38 -51 -82 -74 -104 -118 -155 -118 200 MB DIV 51 39 29 45 48 23 -9 -7 -28 -19 -6 0 -2 700-850 TADV 1 5 8 5 6 6 5 0 -1 1 0 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 1305 1305 1312 1340 1362 1423 1572 1772 1855 1863 1797 1638 1489 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.7 21.6 22.2 23.0 24.0 25.0 25.7 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.6 121.8 123.0 124.3 126.7 129.0 131.7 134.0 135.2 135.3 133.9 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 15 13 12 13 9 6 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -9. -11. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. -6. -11. -14. -14. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 119.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 10/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.63 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 119.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.37 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.2% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 7.0% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 10/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##