*                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  ERNESTO     AL052024  08/20/24  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    60    52    45    39    35   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND       60    52    45    39    35   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM       60    53    47    42    38   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)        24    29    36    35    35   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     7     8     4     6     7   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        252   256   263   267   250   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         15.0  18.6  15.5  14.0  13.2   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)    76    83    78    76    75   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -51.4 -50.9 -49.9 -49.1 -48.0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.6  -1.0  -0.6   0.2   0.7   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       0     0     0     0     0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     69    68    60    55    56   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    24    24    21    18    17  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -11    -2    38   102   147   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        55    68    61    38    47   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV       9   -11   -28   -42   -86   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        413   818  1211  1357   917   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     48.3  49.7  51.0  52.2  53.4   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)     47.2  41.9  36.5  30.2  23.9   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)    35    37    39    40    40   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT       0     0     0     0     0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 32      CX,CY:  26/ 18
  T-12 MAX WIND:  75            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  784  (MEAN=620)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  26.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):            0.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.    2.    3.    4.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  SST POTENTIAL         -3.   -6.   -7.   -7.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  PERSISTENCE           -3.   -5.   -5.   -4.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.   -2.   -2.   -3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.   -1.   -2.   -3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.   -2.   -4.   -6.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.    0.    0.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   -0.   -0.   -1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.    0.   -0.   -1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.   -1.   -2.   -1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  RI POTENTIAL          -0.   -1.   -2.   -3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -8.  -15.  -21.  -25.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   60. LAT, LON:   48.3    47.2

      ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO    08/20/24  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :  -15.0    -49.5  to   33.0        0.42         999.0
 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT)      :   47.4     46.9  to    6.8        0.00           0.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :    0.0      0.0  to  155.1        0.00           0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   18.4     36.6  to    2.8        0.54         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   60.0     22.5  to  137.5        0.98         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -1.4      2.9  to   -3.0        0.73         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  240.6    895.4  to  -69.3        0.68         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   53.8    -29.7  to  189.2        0.38         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :   14.7     27.0  to  143.0        0.00           0.0
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :   87.5    109.2  to    0.0        0.20         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:     0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  999.0%
       DTOPS:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
       SDCON:       0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO    08/20/24  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO    08/20/2024  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  60    52    45    39    35   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 18HR AGO           60    59    52    46    42   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 12HR AGO           60    57    56    50    46   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
  6HR AGO           60    54    51    50    46   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT