* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * DEXTER AL042025 08/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 51 51 49 45 42 38 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 51 51 49 45 42 38 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 49 47 41 36 34 33 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 44 42 38 38 36 35 29 23 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 3 -6 -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 248 241 228 227 238 239 232 226 227 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 22.5 20.3 22.7 20.3 19.9 19.4 19.3 19.4 19.9 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 91 82 92 82 81 79 78 78 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.2 -52.3 -51.5 -50.8 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 35 35 37 39 45 51 54 56 56 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 25 29 29 26 23 21 19 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 17 26 13 24 27 10 1 5 10 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 4 16 36 36 16 4 9 30 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -13 -15 -12 -18 -11 -13 -11 -8 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 641 609 625 681 768 1036 1352 1610 1350 1070 777 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.0 41.8 42.6 43.4 44.2 45.3 46.1 46.5 46.9 47.4 47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.4 49.5 47.6 45.7 43.8 39.5 35.0 30.8 27.2 23.3 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 3. 0. -3. -8. -13. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 41.0 51.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042025 DEXTER 08/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042025 DEXTER 08/07/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042025 DEXTER 08/07/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 49 51 51 49 45 42 38 35 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 50 50 48 44 41 37 34 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 48 46 42 39 35 32 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 38 34 31 27 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT