* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/13/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 58 67 75 81 89 91 93 100 105 107 107 109 116 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 58 67 75 81 89 91 93 100 105 107 107 109 116 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 58 67 77 86 93 93 93 94 98 103 106 110 113 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 9 10 5 13 16 23 23 15 14 10 9 7 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -2 -6 -4 -5 -5 -9 -3 -2 -1 5 3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 64 51 21 24 359 329 330 325 318 312 309 354 337 326 286 260 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.2 29.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 132 136 137 141 145 153 153 157 156 158 158 162 171 168 146 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 57 57 61 58 59 56 59 59 60 62 62 66 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 18 19 19 23 24 24 28 31 34 36 38 44 850 MB ENV VOR 115 108 94 81 67 61 49 52 45 24 16 11 35 57 66 78 78 200 MB DIV -2 0 -1 8 12 25 38 31 38 8 10 42 38 12 45 23 72 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 -2 0 -3 -5 -7 -10 -2 0 -2 1 9 11 21 18 LAND (KM) 1530 1438 1359 1214 1074 860 625 367 278 277 392 484 592 719 870 836 714 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.8 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.2 22.1 23.2 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.7 47.2 48.7 50.2 53.0 55.9 58.8 61.4 63.8 65.6 67.0 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 8 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 22 25 30 35 40 45 46 49 48 46 42 37 31 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 30. 36. 44. 46. 48. 55. 60. 62. 62. 64. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.3 44.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/13/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.44 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 16.1% 11.0% 8.4% 6.8% 12.9% 23.1% 29.3% Logistic: 5.5% 13.6% 11.0% 3.7% 1.3% 6.9% 10.0% 21.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 4.3% 7.6% 16.4% Consensus: 3.5% 10.7% 8.0% 4.1% 2.7% 8.0% 13.6% 22.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 28.0% 19.0% 19.0% 6.0% 71.0% 68.0% 28.0% SDCON: 4.2% 19.3% 13.5% 11.5% 4.3% 39.5% 40.8% 25.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/13/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/13/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 54 58 67 75 81 89 91 93 100 105 107 107 109 116 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 54 63 71 77 85 87 89 96 101 103 103 105 112 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 48 57 65 71 79 81 83 90 95 97 97 99 106 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 48 56 62 70 72 74 81 86 88 88 90 97 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT