* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/14/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 57 66 74 81 86 92 98 106 111 115 114 115 112 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 57 66 74 81 86 92 98 106 111 115 114 115 112 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 52 55 64 74 84 88 91 95 101 107 112 115 111 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 9 10 7 8 13 20 22 17 4 10 8 9 2 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -2 -1 -3 -5 -3 -4 -5 -7 -2 -3 -1 -2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 72 54 33 29 35 359 332 324 324 318 333 338 349 344 309 259 221 SST (C) 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 30.1 30.0 28.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 132 136 136 140 141 147 153 156 159 158 158 160 172 170 151 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 59 58 59 57 58 59 59 61 59 63 67 67 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 19 20 23 24 26 28 32 35 38 40 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR 108 96 86 69 64 61 59 58 50 30 31 35 62 61 63 29 84 200 MB DIV 6 7 8 19 26 17 27 18 22 27 45 16 17 26 39 0 49 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -8 -6 -7 -1 1 3 1 2 9 15 24 LAND (KM) 1429 1354 1217 1080 953 761 472 292 281 343 466 543 662 797 837 673 605 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.1 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.8 22.9 24.2 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.9 47.3 48.7 50.2 51.7 54.5 57.5 60.3 62.7 64.9 66.8 68.0 68.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 9 10 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 25 30 33 38 45 46 47 49 47 43 40 34 25 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. 23. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 15. 18. 21. 21. 22. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 29. 36. 41. 47. 53. 61. 66. 70. 69. 70. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.3 45.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/14/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 17.2% 11.6% 8.8% 7.3% 13.3% 22.3% 27.0% Logistic: 7.4% 19.0% 14.3% 5.7% 2.9% 14.3% 15.7% 21.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.5% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 3.3% 13.4% 8.3% Consensus: 4.2% 12.9% 9.4% 5.0% 3.4% 10.3% 17.1% 19.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 38.0% 25.0% 20.0% 9.0% 61.0% 62.0% 30.0% SDCON: 3.6% 25.4% 17.2% 12.5% 6.2% 35.6% 39.5% 24.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/14/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/14/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 53 57 66 74 81 86 92 98 106 111 115 114 115 112 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 54 63 71 78 83 89 95 103 108 112 111 112 109 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 48 57 65 72 77 83 89 97 102 106 105 106 103 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 48 56 63 68 74 80 88 93 97 96 97 94 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT