* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/14/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 53 57 66 74 78 82 90 95 101 110 112 115 114 114 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 53 57 66 74 78 82 90 95 101 110 112 115 114 114 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 51 55 64 74 82 87 90 95 98 105 111 116 113 104 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 11 10 7 10 16 20 20 16 12 11 6 2 10 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 -2 -5 -3 -2 -5 -6 -5 -1 -3 -2 2 -2 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 46 34 37 41 50 3 317 326 325 324 308 337 317 313 238 198 226 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.5 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 30.2 29.8 28.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 137 140 141 145 153 154 157 157 156 157 161 172 166 148 136 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.4 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 5 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 58 59 57 58 59 62 64 63 65 67 66 64 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 18 18 20 21 21 22 27 29 32 38 40 44 44 46 850 MB ENV VOR 95 84 71 64 62 47 54 45 35 27 22 34 69 75 79 75 86 200 MB DIV -2 8 17 20 12 20 16 27 5 35 32 33 26 31 8 55 50 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 -2 -5 -7 -6 -8 1 5 5 2 5 12 5 33 LAND (KM) 1328 1192 1060 924 805 571 323 241 252 413 497 592 697 823 771 625 640 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.4 19.4 20.2 21.0 22.2 23.5 24.8 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.9 50.3 51.9 53.5 56.4 59.3 61.9 64.0 65.9 67.4 68.4 68.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 14 14 12 11 10 9 7 8 11 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 31 35 37 43 46 47 51 48 46 42 38 32 25 19 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 8. 11. 15. 22. 22. 26. 24. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 29. 33. 37. 45. 50. 56. 65. 67. 70. 69. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.3 47.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/14/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.49 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 17.4% 11.8% 9.0% 7.4% 13.3% 21.1% 27.0% Logistic: 7.0% 16.6% 15.0% 6.0% 2.0% 8.0% 7.8% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.4% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 3.1% 4.9% 5.9% Consensus: 4.1% 12.2% 9.9% 5.1% 3.2% 8.1% 11.3% 14.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 23.0% 48.0% 22.0% SDCON: 3.0% 13.6% 8.9% 5.0% 2.6% 15.5% 29.6% 18.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/14/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/14/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 53 57 66 74 78 82 90 95 101 110 112 115 114 114 18HR AGO 45 44 46 50 54 63 71 75 79 87 92 98 107 109 112 111 111 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 49 58 66 70 74 82 87 93 102 104 107 106 106 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 48 56 60 64 72 77 83 92 94 97 96 96 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT