* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/14/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 61 64 72 79 84 86 92 97 101 109 110 115 114 113 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 61 64 72 79 84 86 92 97 101 109 110 115 114 113 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 60 64 74 84 91 92 94 97 101 107 113 115 108 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 7 8 12 18 19 22 12 17 6 7 5 8 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -4 -6 -5 -2 -4 1 0 5 2 1 6 SHEAR DIR 46 46 48 53 19 336 333 336 331 329 342 352 351 107 230 200 244 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.8 30.2 29.5 28.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 140 141 143 147 153 156 158 156 156 158 166 172 161 143 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 57 57 55 59 61 61 65 63 67 66 64 66 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 19 22 23 23 26 29 32 37 39 44 45 48 850 MB ENV VOR 88 76 68 62 56 45 49 36 20 23 3 37 69 88 92 68 111 200 MB DIV 16 32 19 3 12 20 18 31 19 59 34 22 32 42 19 16 38 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -3 -2 -8 -7 -7 1 1 5 4 5 11 14 24 37 LAND (KM) 1184 1042 908 800 715 433 237 220 288 436 492 593 686 874 721 610 643 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.3 22.4 23.6 25.0 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.9 50.4 51.9 53.4 54.9 57.8 60.6 63.0 64.9 66.5 67.8 68.8 69.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 9 8 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 31 36 38 40 47 48 49 53 49 47 41 35 28 22 16 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. 19. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 20. 25. 25. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 22. 29. 34. 36. 42. 47. 51. 59. 60. 65. 64. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.3 48.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/14/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.80 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.47 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 31.7% 17.8% 10.3% 8.3% 19.6% 29.8% 26.8% Logistic: 11.7% 21.8% 21.5% 8.9% 2.5% 11.0% 7.8% 9.1% Bayesian: 4.3% 1.8% 9.4% 0.9% 0.5% 12.1% 15.6% 5.2% Consensus: 7.4% 18.4% 16.2% 6.7% 3.8% 14.2% 17.8% 13.7% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 8.0% 23.0% 24.0% SDCON: 5.2% 16.2% 12.1% 5.8% 2.9% 11.1% 20.4% 18.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/14/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/14/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 61 64 72 79 84 86 92 97 101 109 110 115 114 113 18HR AGO 50 49 52 57 60 68 75 80 82 88 93 97 105 106 111 110 109 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 54 62 69 74 76 82 87 91 99 100 105 104 103 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 51 58 63 65 71 76 80 88 89 94 93 92 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT