* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/14/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 65 71 76 78 83 90 92 97 105 108 114 112 114 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 65 71 76 78 83 90 92 97 105 108 114 112 114 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 61 65 75 81 84 86 91 95 102 109 113 115 109 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 9 11 15 22 21 16 12 11 9 4 8 11 15 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 -5 -1 -1 0 0 2 -1 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 40 39 38 11 347 327 328 334 338 325 4 329 18 248 185 229 232 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.9 30.3 30.1 29.2 28.3 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 137 142 147 149 150 152 159 160 159 159 167 171 172 156 142 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 4 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 55 53 56 57 59 62 62 65 64 64 61 68 67 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 19 20 21 21 22 26 28 30 35 37 43 44 49 850 MB ENV VOR 75 67 58 47 36 38 31 17 9 -5 12 47 65 65 71 70 127 200 MB DIV 25 23 3 1 9 -3 14 28 30 26 42 40 21 17 31 51 42 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -8 -7 -3 1 2 4 5 8 12 10 23 25 LAND (KM) 1042 904 783 700 559 295 202 239 383 442 523 610 743 826 709 671 638 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.9 21.9 23.0 24.2 25.7 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.4 52.0 53.6 55.1 56.5 59.4 62.1 64.2 66.1 67.5 68.6 69.4 70.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 14 14 12 11 10 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 31 36 38 40 43 48 48 52 52 49 43 37 33 26 20 16 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. 19. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 6. 8. 10. 17. 17. 24. 24. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 26. 28. 33. 40. 42. 47. 55. 58. 64. 62. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.6 50.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/14/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.80 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.58 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.49 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 35.9% 21.3% 13.5% 11.7% 19.7% 26.7% 24.8% Logistic: 14.7% 23.8% 24.6% 9.4% 2.6% 11.2% 6.7% 5.5% Bayesian: 5.2% 2.6% 8.9% 0.6% 0.3% 9.2% 18.6% 2.6% Consensus: 9.0% 20.8% 18.3% 7.8% 4.8% 13.3% 17.3% 11.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 37.0% 24.0% 14.0% 4.0% 19.0% 24.0% 40.0% SDCON: 7.5% 28.9% 21.1% 10.9% 4.4% 16.1% 20.6% 25.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/14/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/14/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 57 61 65 71 76 78 83 90 92 97 105 108 114 112 114 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 61 67 72 74 79 86 88 93 101 104 110 108 110 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 60 65 67 72 79 81 86 94 97 103 101 103 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 50 55 57 62 69 71 76 84 87 93 91 93 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT