* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/15/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 77 81 88 92 96 98 100 102 105 105 111 112 113 110 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 77 81 88 92 96 98 100 102 105 105 111 112 113 110 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 70 76 82 93 99 103 104 106 109 112 112 114 112 104 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 10 12 19 18 19 9 18 11 15 8 9 6 13 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -3 -3 -1 -5 -3 0 -4 3 1 4 0 3 6 4 SHEAR DIR 42 47 18 3 343 338 337 336 358 349 4 335 331 284 165 227 248 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.3 30.3 30.0 28.9 28.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 149 149 149 150 156 160 158 160 164 170 171 170 151 139 124 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.1 -50.4 -50.2 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 3 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 54 56 58 62 64 66 65 67 67 69 71 70 61 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 19 19 22 23 26 28 30 34 37 38 43 45 49 50 850 MB ENV VOR 71 63 54 46 46 46 27 17 19 3 45 56 79 90 105 125 126 200 MB DIV 34 23 9 4 4 13 16 23 38 22 48 20 55 35 66 74 -34 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -2 -9 -4 -4 -3 0 5 7 13 21 17 18 32 25 LAND (KM) 908 783 676 551 397 207 187 284 379 440 542 647 771 816 690 755 698 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.3 20.2 21.2 22.0 23.3 24.9 26.5 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.9 53.5 55.0 56.6 58.1 60.8 63.4 65.2 66.9 68.3 69.4 70.1 70.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 14 13 11 9 9 9 9 8 8 11 14 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 36 39 41 44 48 49 51 55 55 48 40 34 33 25 20 18 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 20. 19. 25. 26. 29. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 21. 28. 32. 36. 38. 40. 42. 45. 45. 51. 52. 53. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.9 51.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/15/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 4.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.51 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 53.0% 39.7% 32.9% 28.8% 40.2% 28.1% 24.4% Logistic: 28.1% 32.0% 38.2% 21.8% 5.6% 16.6% 9.9% 7.9% Bayesian: 21.5% 57.5% 46.0% 8.0% 4.1% 36.1% 36.6% 4.2% Consensus: 23.6% 47.5% 41.3% 20.9% 12.8% 31.0% 24.8% 12.2% DTOPS: 12.0% 24.0% 11.0% 9.0% 10.0% 7.0% 27.0% 37.0% SDCON: 17.8% 35.7% 26.1% 14.9% 11.4% 19.0% 25.9% 24.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/15/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/15/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 8( 12) 11( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 4( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 66 71 77 81 88 92 96 98 100 102 105 105 111 112 113 110 18HR AGO 60 59 64 70 74 81 85 89 91 93 95 98 98 104 105 106 103 12HR AGO 60 57 56 62 66 73 77 81 83 85 87 90 90 96 97 98 95 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 61 65 69 71 73 75 78 78 84 85 86 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT