* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/15/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 75 81 86 91 96 100 102 105 105 110 113 111 111 109 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 75 81 86 91 96 100 102 105 105 110 113 111 111 109 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 70 76 81 91 98 104 105 106 109 111 114 114 108 101 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 11 11 13 19 17 19 14 17 14 12 11 6 15 25 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 0 -2 1 -4 0 3 12 14 SHEAR DIR 39 360 2 336 330 335 336 344 334 359 338 338 311 241 244 243 236 SST (C) 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 30.0 30.3 30.2 29.4 28.3 27.1 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 147 149 149 151 152 159 158 160 160 169 171 171 160 144 130 123 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -50.6 -50.7 -50.0 -49.9 -48.4 -47.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 4 1 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 55 56 59 63 65 66 68 67 69 68 69 67 64 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 19 22 23 25 28 31 34 37 39 43 46 47 51 55 850 MB ENV VOR 63 55 47 48 52 34 29 23 10 32 58 86 82 77 95 143 201 200 MB DIV 22 10 8 25 19 18 29 42 24 46 26 34 24 60 83 71 22 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -6 -8 -7 -3 -4 2 3 10 9 13 17 16 34 96 24 LAND (KM) 781 686 528 382 261 207 239 392 444 541 590 712 861 738 720 741 695 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 20.0 20.9 22.0 23.1 24.5 25.8 27.3 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.7 55.3 56.8 58.3 59.8 62.2 64.5 66.4 67.7 69.0 69.9 70.5 70.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 12 11 9 8 9 8 8 10 13 18 24 27 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 44 48 50 49 53 53 50 42 35 34 28 21 16 23 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 21. 26. 28. 28. 30. 34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 26. 31. 36. 40. 42. 45. 45. 50. 53. 51. 51. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.5 53.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/15/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 400.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.51 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.45 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 44.9% 31.6% 24.2% 20.9% 29.1% 23.5% 23.5% Logistic: 15.9% 24.7% 24.7% 14.8% 4.3% 11.6% 9.0% 9.2% Bayesian: 9.4% 7.1% 24.3% 4.3% 2.5% 20.0% 24.8% 3.7% Consensus: 13.7% 25.6% 26.9% 14.4% 9.3% 20.2% 19.1% 12.2% DTOPS: 25.0% 48.0% 27.0% 13.0% 15.0% 9.0% 45.0% 58.0% SDCON: 19.3% 36.8% 26.9% 13.7% 12.1% 14.6% 32.0% 35.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/15/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/15/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 8( 12) 10( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 5( 6) 9( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 70 75 81 86 91 96 100 102 105 105 110 113 111 111 109 18HR AGO 60 59 64 69 75 80 85 90 94 96 99 99 104 107 105 105 103 12HR AGO 60 57 56 61 67 72 77 82 86 88 91 91 96 99 97 97 95 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 56 61 66 71 75 77 80 80 85 88 86 86 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT