* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/15/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 79 84 90 96 102 105 105 111 114 117 119 114 112 110 V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 79 84 90 96 102 105 105 111 114 117 119 114 112 110 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 73 78 83 92 100 106 108 109 113 115 115 112 104 94 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 13 15 15 18 11 17 15 19 12 13 8 20 46 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -3 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 4 2 13 11 SHEAR DIR 11 353 329 327 328 331 333 356 355 360 339 322 283 209 225 236 229 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.8 30.3 30.3 30.0 28.8 27.9 27.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 152 150 158 161 160 159 165 171 171 170 151 139 132 114 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -49.9 -48.1 -46.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 8 4 1 1 700-500 MB RH 53 52 54 55 55 59 61 65 65 65 64 63 63 66 70 67 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 21 21 23 26 29 32 33 38 41 44 47 47 52 57 850 MB ENV VOR 54 46 49 47 40 34 21 15 17 63 88 98 98 90 110 149 242 200 MB DIV 6 15 20 18 28 28 21 47 44 56 19 12 24 28 61 59 35 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -6 -6 0 -9 0 7 10 7 11 20 13 17 36 26 4 LAND (KM) 682 525 379 279 241 208 351 410 456 488 597 737 720 642 720 611 573 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.5 21.6 22.8 23.7 24.8 26.3 28.0 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 56.8 58.4 59.8 61.2 63.6 65.9 67.8 69.1 70.1 70.8 71.3 71.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 7 8 8 9 12 17 21 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 41 44 48 48 48 51 55 51 44 38 34 35 25 18 21 18 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 16. 24. 27. 30. 31. 30. 33. 38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 25. 31. 37. 41. 40. 46. 49. 52. 54. 49. 47. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.0 55.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/15/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 435.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.48 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.41 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 34.7% 22.7% 21.3% 19.4% 18.9% 18.6% 22.1% Logistic: 14.9% 21.4% 21.4% 12.6% 4.2% 9.9% 7.7% 6.1% Bayesian: 6.7% 8.6% 19.4% 2.5% 1.7% 13.6% 7.1% 1.6% Consensus: 11.8% 21.6% 21.1% 12.1% 8.4% 14.1% 11.1% 9.9% DTOPS: 23.0% 63.0% 48.0% 35.0% 33.0% 51.0% 80.0% 35.0% SDCON: 17.4% 42.3% 34.5% 23.5% 20.7% 32.5% 45.5% 22.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/15/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/15/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 9( 15) 12( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 6( 8) 22( 28) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 74 79 84 90 96 102 105 105 111 114 117 119 114 112 110 18HR AGO 65 64 69 74 79 85 91 97 100 100 106 109 112 114 109 107 105 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 71 77 83 89 92 92 98 101 104 106 101 99 97 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 60 66 72 78 81 81 87 90 93 95 90 88 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT