* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/15/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 76 82 87 95 103 109 110 113 116 119 116 115 112 109 100 V (KT) LAND 65 70 76 82 87 95 103 109 110 113 116 119 116 115 112 109 100 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 74 79 84 95 106 111 114 118 119 118 114 105 96 83 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 15 15 13 13 15 17 17 14 13 13 17 42 70 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 0 -3 0 -3 0 -3 -2 -5 -2 1 9 0 14 SHEAR DIR 330 323 315 325 327 332 351 347 350 334 328 270 233 252 238 245 248 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.2 29.9 29.2 28.3 27.0 26.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 155 153 156 157 159 161 165 171 171 168 156 144 128 127 99 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.2 -50.2 -49.5 -49.6 -49.3 -48.6 -47.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 5 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 56 55 56 59 62 63 63 62 64 59 63 63 54 35 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 22 23 26 29 33 35 39 43 47 47 49 51 55 55 850 MB ENV VOR 47 48 43 32 26 24 19 12 48 79 113 113 108 118 157 135 -32 200 MB DIV 20 28 5 -1 0 17 38 26 42 41 44 10 6 -1 28 -40 -22 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -6 0 -6 0 7 10 5 12 16 13 14 33 21 -39 -7 LAND (KM) 535 393 292 264 248 288 412 449 506 589 724 769 636 690 684 596 553 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.3 22.5 23.5 24.7 26.1 27.6 29.5 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.8 58.4 60.0 61.3 62.7 64.9 67.1 68.6 69.7 70.5 71.1 71.2 70.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 14 13 12 11 10 8 8 8 9 11 13 19 21 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 44 46 47 47 48 53 52 47 40 34 35 27 21 17 24 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 23. 29. 34. 32. 32. 34. 36. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 30. 38. 44. 45. 48. 51. 54. 51. 50. 47. 44. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.7 56.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/15/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.48 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.44 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.3% 35.3% 23.6% 22.3% 20.3% 20.1% 19.1% 21.8% Logistic: 15.9% 20.1% 20.4% 13.4% 4.7% 10.5% 8.5% 4.8% Bayesian: 7.6% 19.3% 17.7% 2.7% 2.0% 12.1% 11.9% 1.5% Consensus: 13.3% 24.9% 20.6% 12.8% 9.0% 14.2% 13.2% 9.4% DTOPS: 59.0% 88.0% 73.0% 48.0% 33.0% 54.0% 83.0% 38.0% SDCON: 36.1% 56.4% 46.8% 30.4% 21.0% 34.1% 48.1% 23.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/15/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/15/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 10( 16) 17( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 6( 7) 22( 27) 66( 75) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 76 82 87 95 103 109 110 113 116 119 116 115 112 109 100 18HR AGO 65 64 70 76 81 89 97 103 104 107 110 113 110 109 106 103 94 12HR AGO 65 62 61 67 72 80 88 94 95 98 101 104 101 100 97 94 85 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 60 68 76 82 83 86 89 92 89 88 85 82 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT