* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/16/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 88 94 99 109 117 117 118 117 121 117 115 111 113 108 99 V (KT) LAND 75 82 88 94 99 109 117 117 118 117 121 117 115 111 113 108 99 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 87 92 97 109 118 120 119 119 117 113 108 102 95 82 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 12 15 13 13 11 22 20 20 12 9 14 25 54 68 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -4 0 1 -3 0 -2 0 -2 4 3 16 13 3 SHEAR DIR 281 283 316 330 352 349 19 345 341 325 305 242 211 236 241 234 206 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.3 28.3 27.7 27.0 24.7 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 156 158 159 160 163 171 170 171 158 143 136 129 108 80 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.0 -49.3 -49.4 -47.0 -46.4 -43.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.4 1.6 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 4 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 57 59 56 57 57 60 65 64 68 69 72 68 67 62 44 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 24 25 26 26 30 35 36 40 42 48 48 50 51 59 63 60 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 38 35 40 33 28 37 80 93 107 89 101 144 211 236 248 200 MB DIV 55 35 13 8 15 43 57 46 45 63 66 74 70 96 37 42 0 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 -7 -8 1 7 11 13 28 29 18 18 31 10 -19 -20 LAND (KM) 385 303 276 262 250 403 429 504 584 715 822 692 627 667 597 522 198 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.7 21.0 22.1 23.1 24.3 25.9 27.4 29.0 31.2 33.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.6 60.1 61.6 62.9 64.2 66.4 68.1 69.3 70.2 70.7 70.9 70.4 69.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 8 8 9 8 10 13 16 19 23 27 28 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 47 49 52 52 50 42 34 34 29 22 17 22 15 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 13. 17. 22. 26. 34. 33. 35. 34. 42. 43. 38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 12. 7. 3. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 24. 34. 42. 42. 43. 42. 46. 42. 40. 36. 38. 33. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.4 58.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/16/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 453.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.46 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.36 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.7% 38.8% 27.9% 23.1% 19.5% 19.5% 18.7% 20.4% Logistic: 12.8% 17.0% 13.6% 6.8% 2.4% 7.2% 7.0% 3.8% Bayesian: 21.8% 25.2% 33.3% 15.3% 5.4% 16.1% 5.2% 1.5% Consensus: 18.8% 27.0% 24.9% 15.1% 9.1% 14.3% 10.3% 8.6% DTOPS: 38.0% 79.0% 61.0% 47.0% 38.0% 78.0% 73.0% 24.0% SDCON: 28.4% 53.0% 42.9% 31.0% 23.5% 46.1% 41.6% 16.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/16/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/16/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 11( 15) 21( 33) 28( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 5( 7) 38( 42) 64( 79) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 82 88 94 99 109 117 117 118 117 121 117 115 111 113 108 99 18HR AGO 75 74 80 86 91 101 109 109 110 109 113 109 107 103 105 100 91 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 82 92 100 100 101 100 104 100 98 94 96 91 82 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 70 80 88 88 89 88 92 88 86 82 84 79 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 82 88 79 73 69 77 77 78 77 81 77 75 71 73 68 59