* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/16/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 98 102 106 110 113 116 115 115 116 119 117 115 117 114 104 90 V (KT) LAND 90 98 102 106 110 113 116 115 115 116 119 117 115 117 114 104 90 V (KT) LGEM 90 99 105 110 114 119 120 120 119 118 118 114 108 100 88 65 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 12 13 15 14 24 20 13 13 9 22 43 66 69 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -3 -2 -3 0 1 0 -3 2 -1 0 4 6 12 9 2 SHEAR DIR 291 315 329 350 349 2 357 352 330 321 287 262 243 243 233 218 208 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.4 29.9 29.1 27.9 27.2 26.2 19.8 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 157 159 158 161 165 171 171 167 155 139 132 122 84 72 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -50.9 -49.9 -49.8 -49.2 -49.3 -48.5 -47.6 -45.7 -45.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 57 58 62 64 68 67 71 69 69 60 48 38 41 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 28 30 32 36 38 41 44 50 51 52 58 61 59 49 850 MB ENV VOR 55 50 43 46 41 34 27 56 77 94 108 115 118 171 191 238 284 200 MB DIV 34 33 23 24 26 31 37 62 38 74 63 62 30 46 71 -1 13 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -6 -3 7 10 11 21 29 31 13 29 23 -26 0 -11 LAND (KM) 258 226 217 222 279 358 421 489 630 786 785 687 678 635 611 348 507 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.0 22.2 23.3 24.5 26.5 28.1 29.6 31.8 35.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.9 63.4 64.5 65.6 67.6 68.8 69.7 70.5 70.8 70.8 69.9 68.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 11 11 10 7 9 9 8 9 14 20 27 29 26 24 HEAT CONTENT 48 49 51 54 57 55 47 41 34 34 26 21 21 21 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -20. -26. -30. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 17. 22. 30. 31. 31. 36. 38. 33. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 27. 25. 25. 26. 29. 27. 25. 27. 24. 14. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.6 60.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/16/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 15.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 553.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.35 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.3% 46.0% 37.5% 28.5% 19.7% 20.8% 20.7% 0.0% Logistic: 27.8% 33.2% 29.8% 18.5% 6.5% 18.1% 8.3% 4.2% Bayesian: 54.2% 30.1% 53.7% 22.5% 6.6% 9.7% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 39.4% 36.4% 40.3% 23.2% 11.0% 16.2% 9.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 46.0% 64.0% 52.0% 44.0% 30.0% 58.0% 54.0% 3.0% SDCON: 42.7% 50.2% 46.1% 33.6% 20.5% 37.1% 31.9% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/16/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/16/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 24( 33) 29( 53) 30( 67) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 36( 42) 73( 84) 71( 95) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 98 102 106 110 113 116 115 115 116 119 117 115 117 114 104 90 18HR AGO 90 89 93 97 101 104 107 106 106 107 110 108 106 108 105 95 81 12HR AGO 90 87 86 90 94 97 100 99 99 100 103 101 99 101 98 88 74 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 84 87 90 89 89 90 93 91 89 91 88 78 64 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 74 77 76 76 77 80 78 76 78 75 65 51 IN 6HR 90 98 89 83 80 79 82 81 81 82 85 83 81 83 80 70 56 IN 12HR 90 98 102 93 87 83 86 85 85 86 89 87 85 87 84 74 60