* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/16/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 139 138 134 130 123 120 122 120 121 120 117 118 122 120 111 101 V (KT) LAND 130 139 138 134 130 123 120 122 120 121 120 117 118 122 120 111 101 V (KT) LGEM 130 142 145 142 137 129 125 121 119 118 117 111 105 98 86 64 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 15 12 16 14 21 20 17 10 13 7 17 35 61 70 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 2 1 3 2 -2 4 3 15 25 8 0 SHEAR DIR 332 334 339 344 2 14 345 348 328 313 282 248 233 242 232 218 208 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.2 29.6 28.6 27.8 27.2 24.0 17.2 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 159 159 160 163 167 171 171 163 148 138 133 104 78 76 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 -50.2 -49.7 -49.4 -49.4 -48.1 -46.1 -44.1 -43.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.5 1.1 0.6 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 58 59 61 63 66 68 71 71 69 64 49 45 38 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 28 29 32 33 35 41 42 45 50 50 50 54 58 58 54 850 MB ENV VOR 57 53 55 41 36 33 30 65 74 92 108 96 103 152 180 244 350 200 MB DIV 23 32 45 36 45 28 17 44 75 60 36 72 107 78 108 22 26 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -8 0 4 6 8 14 26 30 22 22 38 48 15 -47 -3 LAND (KM) 173 172 184 264 300 346 438 488 649 792 698 643 723 633 503 435 820 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 22.4 23.6 25.0 26.8 28.6 30.6 33.0 35.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.1 63.4 64.6 65.7 66.8 68.4 69.4 70.4 70.8 71.0 70.9 69.5 66.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 11 10 8 8 9 9 10 12 16 23 29 30 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 55 58 60 53 44 37 34 31 24 17 21 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -21. -29. -37. -43. -49. -55. -63. -71. -75. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -11. -15. -16. -15. -11. -6. -2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 10. 9. 5. 2. -0. 0. 1. -2. -2. -10. -10. -6. -1. 1. -3. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 16. 19. 23. 30. 29. 28. 31. 34. 32. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 8. 4. 0. -7. -10. -8. -10. -9. -10. -13. -12. -8. -10. -19. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 19.6 62.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/16/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 55.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 781.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 63.0% 53.6% 51.2% 35.9% 12.2% 24.4% 7.8% 1.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 30.6% 29.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.4% 28.1% 26.7% 12.4% 4.5% 8.2% 2.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 56.0% 14.0% 22.0% 11.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 38.7% 21.0% 24.3% 11.7% 3.2% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/16/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/16/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 50( 72) 43( 84) 35( 89) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 57 90( 96) 86( 99) 90(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 139 138 134 130 123 120 122 120 121 120 117 118 122 120 111 101 18HR AGO 130 129 128 124 120 113 110 112 110 111 110 107 108 112 110 101 91 12HR AGO 130 127 126 122 118 111 108 110 108 109 108 105 106 110 108 99 89 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 116 109 106 108 106 107 106 103 104 108 106 97 87 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 104 101 103 101 102 101 98 99 103 101 92 82 IN 6HR 130 139 130 124 121 117 114 116 114 115 114 111 112 116 114 105 95 IN 12HR 130 139 138 129 123 119 116 118 116 117 116 113 114 118 116 107 97