* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/16/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 147 145 138 132 128 123 120 122 123 118 116 119 120 119 104 92 V (KT) LAND 140 147 145 138 132 128 123 120 122 123 118 116 119 120 119 104 92 V (KT) LGEM 140 150 150 144 139 130 124 123 121 119 115 109 101 94 74 52 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 16 14 13 24 21 13 12 7 15 26 60 85 75 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -1 0 2 1 0 6 0 4 3 6 10 8 5 2 SHEAR DIR 347 347 345 349 2 346 341 336 324 288 246 247 236 240 226 218 202 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.2 29.1 28.0 27.0 26.8 21.3 15.2 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 158 158 161 167 171 172 155 140 129 128 90 75 72 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.3 -50.0 -49.2 -49.4 -48.4 -47.7 -45.5 -44.9 -44.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.4 2.2 1.9 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.3 2.7 4.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 55 56 58 60 60 67 67 70 69 71 67 55 41 33 46 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 30 30 34 37 39 45 47 49 51 54 56 59 52 46 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 38 34 33 17 38 49 69 83 109 120 136 185 215 289 275 200 MB DIV 15 34 21 31 42 34 40 40 73 13 58 90 99 90 40 5 32 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -2 3 4 8 12 19 28 28 24 27 35 0 -28 12 -32 LAND (KM) 151 151 218 279 301 359 436 535 674 807 644 697 733 644 394 560 1024 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.8 24.1 25.6 27.1 29.2 31.9 34.5 36.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.4 64.6 65.8 66.7 67.6 69.1 70.0 70.6 71.0 71.0 70.4 68.2 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 12 14 18 23 29 31 30 29 HEAT CONTENT 52 55 58 60 58 48 41 35 35 28 21 18 23 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -7. -15. -26. -36. -46. -54. -61. -69. -77. -86. -90. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -17. -13. -7. -1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -10. -11. -6. -1. 0. -4. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 13. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. 32. 34. 23. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 5. -2. -8. -12. -17. -20. -18. -17. -22. -24. -21. -20. -21. -36. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 19.8 63.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/16/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 50.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 845.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 50.5% 34.0% 30.5% 18.4% 6.0% 11.9% 5.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.8% 11.5% 10.2% 6.1% 2.0% 4.0% 1.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 17.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 16.9% 6.7% 6.6% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/16/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/16/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 66( 84) 45( 91) 43( 95) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 72 92( 98) 91(100) 87(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 147 145 138 132 128 123 120 122 123 118 116 119 120 119 104 92 18HR AGO 140 139 137 130 124 120 115 112 114 115 110 108 111 112 111 96 84 12HR AGO 140 137 136 129 123 119 114 111 113 114 109 107 110 111 110 95 83 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 124 120 115 112 114 115 110 108 111 112 111 96 84 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 117 112 109 111 112 107 105 108 109 108 93 81 IN 6HR 140 147 138 132 129 125 120 117 119 120 115 113 116 117 116 101 89 IN 12HR 140 147 145 136 130 126 121 118 120 121 116 114 117 118 117 102 90