* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/17/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 123 121 121 115 110 111 116 122 123 121 120 119 109 94 85 V (KT) LAND 125 124 123 121 121 115 110 111 116 122 123 121 120 119 109 94 85 V (KT) LGEM 125 123 122 121 120 118 115 113 114 115 111 105 96 85 62 43 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 18 21 15 24 19 20 9 13 11 14 37 62 61 57 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 -1 0 0 2 3 3 0 5 5 4 16 7 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 347 345 357 2 11 347 354 327 324 279 254 253 250 230 210 194 190 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.3 29.8 28.8 28.1 27.0 25.1 18.4 15.8 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 159 158 159 165 171 171 166 150 142 129 112 80 75 69 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.1 -49.5 -49.0 -48.9 -47.9 -46.7 -45.6 -45.5 -44.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.2 1.3 2.3 2.2 3.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 60 61 62 68 70 72 72 71 66 49 43 38 46 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 31 32 35 37 39 43 46 50 51 53 55 61 58 47 38 850 MB ENV VOR 57 44 44 38 33 24 48 58 70 88 106 144 146 197 210 235 244 200 MB DIV 44 41 47 54 16 17 39 56 51 12 69 152 42 37 6 -2 24 700-850 TADV -8 -3 1 6 8 10 11 28 25 30 18 26 20 -16 -11 -19 -22 LAND (KM) 139 211 247 291 309 400 452 590 755 714 614 742 665 568 261 623 1069 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.4 22.0 23.3 24.6 26.3 28.2 30.4 32.8 35.4 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.5 65.5 66.5 67.4 68.3 69.6 70.4 71.0 71.2 70.9 70.0 67.1 62.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 8 8 9 10 12 15 21 26 29 28 26 23 HEAT CONTENT 55 58 60 60 55 46 39 34 34 25 18 22 19 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 1. -2. -9. -18. -26. -33. -40. -47. -54. -61. -68. -71. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -7. -11. -14. -19. -21. -19. -13. -8. -3. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 26. 28. 29. 31. 36. 31. 14. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -4. -10. -15. -14. -9. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -16. -31. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 20.0 64.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/17/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 734.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 4.9% 3.0% 2.2% 2.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.2% 3.4% 3.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/17/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/17/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 35( 60) 34( 73) 31( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 59 69( 87) 72( 96) 71( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 124 123 121 121 115 110 111 116 122 123 121 120 119 109 94 85 18HR AGO 125 124 123 121 121 115 110 111 116 122 123 121 120 119 109 94 85 12HR AGO 125 122 121 119 119 113 108 109 114 120 121 119 118 117 107 92 83 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 115 109 104 105 110 116 117 115 114 113 103 88 79 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 100 95 96 101 107 108 106 105 104 94 79 70 IN 6HR 125 124 115 109 106 102 97 98 103 109 110 108 107 106 96 81 72 IN 12HR 125 124 123 114 108 104 99 100 105 111 112 110 109 108 98 83 74