* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/17/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 105 105 106 107 104 104 107 113 121 123 124 116 112 106 90 81 V (KT) LAND 110 105 105 106 107 104 104 107 113 121 123 124 116 112 106 90 81 V (KT) LGEM 110 103 100 100 102 105 107 110 112 113 111 102 92 78 58 41 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 20 16 14 21 20 15 11 10 14 22 54 73 58 45 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -1 -3 1 1 -3 3 0 0 0 2 7 11 4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 348 355 356 358 342 341 341 338 290 238 247 239 242 242 248 245 236 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.8 30.3 30.2 30.0 28.9 27.8 27.0 24.8 23.8 17.5 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 158 158 163 165 171 171 170 152 138 129 108 101 78 76 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -50.7 -50.5 -49.4 -49.4 -48.6 -48.6 -48.0 -47.5 -46.6 -47.9 -49.1 -47.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.0 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 58 59 57 58 63 65 67 66 67 60 53 35 27 34 38 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 34 35 36 39 41 46 48 52 51 53 54 58 59 47 39 850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 39 30 22 42 54 79 85 111 125 139 173 202 95 60 116 200 MB DIV 34 50 52 40 10 48 26 63 25 81 40 87 59 -8 -60 -52 -21 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 6 8 17 8 20 26 18 16 37 -20 -12 -14 -4 -37 LAND (KM) 207 261 271 294 329 379 451 630 692 588 526 678 527 477 393 450 870 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.9 25.1 27.0 29.0 30.9 33.1 35.8 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.9 66.8 67.8 68.6 69.5 70.6 71.4 72.0 72.5 72.2 70.9 67.9 63.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 7 9 10 10 11 15 21 23 22 23 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 59 61 59 54 49 44 39 36 31 24 18 24 15 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -11. -16. -22. -27. -33. -39. -46. -53. -57. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -10. -15. -16. -14. -9. -5. -1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. -0. 1. 4. 5. 2. 0. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 19. 25. 23. 26. 25. 29. 28. 11. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -5. -4. -3. -6. -6. -3. 3. 11. 13. 14. 6. 2. -4. -20. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.3 65.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/17/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 663.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.24 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 7.3% 4.9% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 3.2% 2.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 23.0% 19.0% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.4% 13.1% 10.5% 2.4% 2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/17/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/17/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 27( 62) 26( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 72 78( 94) 87( 99) 70(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 105 105 106 107 104 104 107 113 121 123 124 116 112 106 90 81 18HR AGO 110 109 109 110 111 108 108 111 117 125 127 128 120 116 110 94 85 12HR AGO 110 107 106 107 108 105 105 108 114 122 124 125 117 113 107 91 82 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 101 98 98 101 107 115 117 118 110 106 100 84 75 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 88 88 91 97 105 107 108 100 96 90 74 65 IN 6HR 110 105 96 90 87 85 85 88 94 102 104 105 97 93 87 71 62 IN 12HR 110 105 105 96 90 86 86 89 95 103 105 106 98 94 88 72 63