* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/17/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 108 109 107 104 103 108 115 121 119 118 115 112 97 86 79 V (KT) LAND 110 107 108 109 107 104 103 108 115 121 119 118 115 112 97 86 79 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 105 106 106 107 109 112 114 114 106 99 90 72 49 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 15 14 22 20 18 9 10 11 14 32 66 77 59 52 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 5 3 4 0 2 6 16 2 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 352 360 360 345 348 342 335 310 271 248 235 238 238 236 240 228 217 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.0 29.4 27.9 27.1 26.5 22.9 19.2 15.3 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 158 161 163 169 171 170 160 138 129 123 95 81 74 71 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.3 -49.5 -49.3 -49.0 -48.9 -47.7 -46.2 -45.9 -48.1 -48.0 -47.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 58 57 58 65 64 68 68 65 61 45 32 28 33 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 33 34 36 38 41 46 50 53 52 54 58 61 53 43 37 850 MB ENV VOR 41 34 28 19 18 50 60 81 85 97 113 139 222 181 83 58 125 200 MB DIV 52 56 53 17 20 50 52 15 64 80 115 73 45 -60 -56 -46 -22 700-850 TADV 0 1 10 7 14 15 12 20 19 15 23 11 -13 -14 -7 -34 -4 LAND (KM) 243 251 267 312 350 394 519 639 680 579 616 632 559 495 322 608 1062 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.5 23.1 24.4 25.9 27.8 29.9 32.1 34.5 37.1 39.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.9 68.8 69.5 70.2 71.1 72.0 72.3 72.1 71.1 69.1 65.6 60.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 13 17 22 23 22 23 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 61 59 55 50 47 42 37 36 26 21 18 26 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -11. -16. -23. -29. -35. -41. -48. -54. -57. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -17. -13. -9. -4. -1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 17. 23. 28. 26. 28. 32. 34. 22. 8. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -1. -2. -6. -7. -2. 5. 11. 9. 8. 5. 2. -13. -24. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.7 67.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/17/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 638.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 10.6% 7.6% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 3.4% 1.8% 1.8% 2.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.1% 3.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 25.0% 16.0% 13.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 14.3% 10.5% 8.2% 2.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/17/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/17/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 27( 63) 26( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 40 76( 86) 65( 95) 40( 97) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 107 108 109 107 104 103 108 115 121 119 118 115 112 97 86 79 18HR AGO 110 109 110 111 109 106 105 110 117 123 121 120 117 114 99 88 81 12HR AGO 110 107 106 107 105 102 101 106 113 119 117 116 113 110 95 84 77 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 95 94 99 106 112 110 109 106 103 88 77 70 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 88 87 92 99 105 103 102 99 96 81 70 63 IN 6HR 110 107 98 92 89 86 85 90 97 103 101 100 97 94 79 68 61 IN 12HR 110 107 108 99 93 89 88 93 100 106 104 103 100 97 82 71 64