* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/17/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 109 107 104 102 101 104 110 110 110 105 101 101 89 78 72 V (KT) LAND 110 109 109 107 104 102 101 104 110 110 110 105 101 101 89 78 72 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 110 109 108 109 110 111 112 108 100 92 83 66 47 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 24 22 23 14 12 11 17 23 37 61 61 54 38 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 1 2 0 -3 5 1 1 0 1 9 15 8 9 3 4 SHEAR DIR 354 6 350 346 337 334 325 273 231 233 219 237 239 242 240 231 206 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.4 30.5 29.7 28.6 27.8 27.2 26.3 23.3 18.0 16.8 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 160 161 164 171 172 164 146 137 131 121 98 78 77 73 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -49.8 -49.5 -49.0 -49.3 -48.8 -48.0 -46.1 -46.8 -48.8 -48.6 -45.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.0 2.1 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.2 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 56 61 64 67 66 68 61 54 39 28 28 40 39 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 36 38 37 41 43 47 51 52 53 53 55 59 53 43 37 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 14 19 36 47 71 65 93 92 123 146 181 135 -14 28 199 200 MB DIV 59 42 14 23 39 21 71 13 76 71 82 55 14 -38 -75 -34 -24 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 14 12 16 21 31 17 18 23 -1 -14 -18 8 -4 -12 LAND (KM) 269 297 337 363 365 459 576 683 523 453 617 609 548 403 342 761 1356 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.3 23.9 25.3 27.0 29.1 31.3 33.4 35.6 37.9 40.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.0 68.8 69.6 70.2 70.8 71.8 72.6 72.7 72.7 71.6 68.9 64.8 59.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 18 22 24 22 24 28 30 HEAT CONTENT 58 53 49 46 45 39 38 31 25 19 25 22 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -12. -18. -25. -32. -38. -44. -51. -56. -59. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -19. -14. -10. -6. -3. -2. -1. 1. 5. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 20. 21. 21. 22. 26. 16. 2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -6. 0. 0. 0. -5. -9. -9. -21. -32. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.5 68.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/17/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 672.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 12.2% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 7.5% 4.9% 5.2% 4.6% 3.1% 1.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 3.4% 4.9% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 8.2% 5.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 36.0% 11.0% 12.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 21.9% 9.6% 8.7% 2.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/17/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/17/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 26( 62) 24( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 62 70( 89) 57( 95) 42( 97) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 109 109 107 104 102 101 104 110 110 110 105 101 101 89 78 72 18HR AGO 110 109 109 107 104 102 101 104 110 110 110 105 101 101 89 78 72 12HR AGO 110 107 106 104 101 99 98 101 107 107 107 102 98 98 86 75 69 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 97 95 94 97 103 103 103 98 94 94 82 71 65 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 89 88 91 97 97 97 92 88 88 76 65 59 IN 6HR 110 109 100 94 91 90 89 92 98 98 98 93 89 89 77 66 60 IN 12HR 110 109 109 100 94 90 89 92 98 98 98 93 89 89 77 66 60