* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/18/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 107 104 103 98 101 105 112 111 110 103 94 89 94 81 74 V (KT) LAND 110 109 107 104 103 98 101 105 112 111 110 103 94 89 94 81 74 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 110 109 107 108 109 112 113 107 98 87 72 60 49 40 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 26 27 20 21 11 17 13 20 25 34 50 69 52 37 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 0 2 2 -2 0 -2 5 9 12 10 6 5 -10 SHEAR DIR 1 351 346 343 340 332 322 282 217 229 224 209 229 234 234 206 155 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.7 30.1 29.6 28.5 28.2 27.5 23.7 19.7 15.8 12.9 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 160 161 161 167 171 172 163 145 143 135 101 82 74 73 72 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.0 -49.6 -49.3 -49.3 -48.4 -47.9 -46.4 -45.3 -47.0 -44.3 -43.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.4 1.3 1.0 1.7 2.5 4.4 5.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 9 9 9 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 62 62 66 67 67 67 63 51 41 35 40 33 44 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 38 38 37 40 40 45 48 53 53 55 54 53 54 59 49 42 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 19 36 47 53 72 78 86 95 111 135 183 226 221 212 290 200 MB DIV 34 25 13 17 0 38 49 28 54 150 68 101 21 14 1 24 20 700-850 TADV 0 5 13 11 13 29 18 24 12 11 0 -66 -40 -23 -25 -2 -33 LAND (KM) 297 346 378 377 400 554 623 633 497 508 638 580 558 325 517 1010 1176 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.8 23.4 24.0 24.6 26.2 28.0 30.0 32.3 34.3 36.3 38.8 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.5 70.1 70.8 71.4 71.9 72.6 72.8 72.0 70.4 67.4 62.6 56.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 14 19 26 26 22 24 31 33 HEAT CONTENT 54 49 46 44 42 36 36 27 22 19 24 17 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. -4. -12. -18. -26. -33. -40. -46. -53. -57. -59. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -9. -14. -17. -21. -18. -15. -10. -7. -4. -2. -1. 2. 6. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 10. 14. 21. 22. 25. 23. 19. 18. 24. 9. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -7. -12. -8. -5. 2. 1. 0. -7. -16. -21. -16. -29. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.1 68.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/18/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.44 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 658.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 11.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 3.3% 2.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.0% 3.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 5.9% 4.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 22.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 13.7% 5.4% 5.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/18/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/18/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 25( 61) 21( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 88 81( 98) 87(100) 55(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 109 107 104 103 98 101 105 112 111 110 103 94 89 94 81 74 18HR AGO 110 109 107 104 103 98 101 105 112 111 110 103 94 89 94 81 74 12HR AGO 110 107 106 103 102 97 100 104 111 110 109 102 93 88 93 80 73 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 99 94 97 101 108 107 106 99 90 85 90 77 70 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 86 89 93 100 99 98 91 82 77 82 69 62 IN 6HR 110 109 100 94 91 87 90 94 101 100 99 92 83 78 83 70 63 IN 12HR 110 109 107 98 92 88 91 95 102 101 100 93 84 79 84 71 64