* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/18/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 109 106 102 98 102 106 106 106 97 86 75 73 69 73 74 V (KT) LAND 115 112 109 106 102 98 102 106 106 106 97 86 75 73 69 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 113 110 107 107 113 116 112 102 88 74 61 48 41 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 28 26 23 20 18 10 8 22 24 34 45 61 70 54 35 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 6 2 1 2 7 9 0 -3 8 -4 SHEAR DIR 350 345 336 335 328 324 296 251 227 201 222 221 222 225 214 194 185 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.3 30.5 29.6 28.7 28.0 27.3 26.8 23.8 15.4 16.1 12.3 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 162 161 163 171 171 162 148 139 132 127 103 75 75 69 67 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 -49.1 -49.4 -48.5 -48.5 -48.0 -47.6 -46.1 -45.1 -47.2 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.4 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.4 2.8 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 56 62 64 65 69 68 71 66 54 44 42 47 50 53 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 38 40 38 42 46 51 53 55 52 49 47 47 45 47 47 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 41 45 46 62 64 90 97 115 114 119 141 170 180 228 253 200 MB DIV 12 33 49 46 63 92 19 72 114 187 110 27 23 3 25 2 48 700-850 TADV 5 12 18 13 14 23 25 32 23 -14 -25 -56 -97 -133 -91 -79 -56 LAND (KM) 306 328 342 390 452 553 624 533 429 555 591 572 413 444 893 1314 1187 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.2 23.9 24.6 25.3 26.9 29.0 30.8 33.2 35.4 37.5 39.9 42.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.9 70.5 71.2 71.6 72.1 72.8 73.4 73.3 72.1 69.6 65.7 60.3 53.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 14 17 21 27 29 28 24 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 51 49 47 43 40 39 32 27 20 24 27 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -6. -14. -22. -31. -39. -46. -53. -58. -62. -63. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -20. -23. -19. -14. -11. -8. -5. -3. -2. 2. 7. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 17. 21. 17. 11. 7. 6. 2. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -13. -9. -9. -9. -18. -29. -40. -42. -46. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 22.5 69.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/18/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 632.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.27 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 10.9% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 3.7% 2.3% 3.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 5.6% 3.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 9.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.4% 3.3% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/18/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/18/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 28( 50) 24( 62) 21( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 37 45( 65) 29( 75) 6( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 112 109 106 102 98 102 106 106 106 97 86 75 73 69 73 74 18HR AGO 115 114 111 108 104 100 104 108 108 108 99 88 77 75 71 75 76 12HR AGO 115 112 111 108 104 100 104 108 108 108 99 88 77 75 71 75 76 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 101 97 101 105 105 105 96 85 74 72 68 72 73 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 92 96 100 100 100 91 80 69 67 63 67 68 IN 6HR 115 112 103 97 94 93 97 101 101 101 92 81 70 68 64 68 69 IN 12HR 115 112 109 100 94 90 94 98 98 98 89 78 67 65 61 65 66