* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/18/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 110 107 105 104 108 108 106 95 84 83 83 73 62 55 V (KT) LAND 120 117 114 110 107 105 104 108 108 106 95 84 83 83 73 62 55 V (KT) LGEM 120 120 118 114 111 110 115 119 113 99 85 75 66 53 41 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 21 20 20 13 17 12 21 21 35 43 62 54 37 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 1 4 0 -1 5 1 5 0 16 12 9 1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 346 340 335 327 328 320 289 238 229 210 225 222 235 223 203 163 123 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.5 30.2 29.5 28.6 28.0 27.2 26.8 24.0 20.4 17.4 13.4 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 161 163 171 172 161 147 139 130 127 103 86 78 70 70 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -49.7 -49.2 -49.5 -48.9 -48.3 -46.9 -46.1 -45.4 -44.0 -43.0 -43.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.9 5.4 5.4 5.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 60 62 63 65 70 71 74 70 57 50 38 39 33 47 56 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 40 39 41 44 47 52 54 56 53 51 55 57 49 41 37 850 MB ENV VOR 28 40 45 41 44 69 70 87 106 130 158 190 232 242 254 289 302 200 MB DIV 31 49 36 62 83 76 27 66 189 114 100 -35 24 15 24 24 20 700-850 TADV 12 15 7 10 11 24 33 32 11 -7 -39 -39 -37 12 -1 -40 -5 LAND (KM) 312 316 347 414 490 553 644 477 469 646 620 580 428 582 1075 1513 1182 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.6 24.2 25.0 25.7 27.5 29.6 31.7 34.0 36.1 38.1 40.3 42.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.5 71.1 71.7 72.1 72.5 73.1 73.4 72.9 71.0 67.9 63.9 58.8 52.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 15 18 21 24 27 28 26 21 17 HEAT CONTENT 50 49 46 42 39 38 29 24 19 24 21 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -7. -17. -26. -37. -46. -53. -61. -67. -72. -74. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -13. -18. -21. -23. -21. -16. -13. -9. -5. -3. -1. 3. 9. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -18. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 19. 22. 17. 14. 17. 18. 7. -4. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -12. -12. -14. -25. -36. -37. -37. -47. -58. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 22.9 70.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/18/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 636.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 3.9% 2.5% 2.9% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 6.5% 1.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 1.9% 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/18/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/18/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 30( 53) 27( 66) 27( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 55 81( 91) 61( 97) 15( 97) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 117 114 110 107 105 104 108 108 106 95 84 83 83 73 62 55 18HR AGO 120 119 116 112 109 107 106 110 110 108 97 86 85 85 75 64 57 12HR AGO 120 117 116 112 109 107 106 110 110 108 97 86 85 85 75 64 57 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 107 105 104 108 108 106 95 84 83 83 73 62 55 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 99 98 102 102 100 89 78 77 77 67 56 49 IN 6HR 120 117 108 102 99 100 99 103 103 101 90 79 78 78 68 57 50 IN 12HR 120 117 114 105 99 95 94 98 98 96 85 74 73 73 63 52 45