* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/18/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 113 112 109 106 109 109 106 98 95 82 73 57 49 51 66 V (KT) LAND 120 117 113 112 109 106 109 109 106 98 95 82 73 57 49 51 66 V (KT) LGEM 120 119 116 114 113 115 119 118 107 94 84 71 54 40 33 34 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 17 22 18 14 13 20 24 27 37 43 63 67 60 35 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 1 -1 -1 2 0 0 6 5 7 4 0 4 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 337 329 319 321 323 315 253 236 224 225 224 231 225 235 244 267 190 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.8 29.7 29.1 28.3 28.2 27.6 26.0 18.1 17.7 18.2 14.8 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 165 171 171 164 154 143 142 136 119 79 76 77 71 69 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -50.3 -50.1 -49.2 -49.8 -49.0 -48.8 -47.9 -48.4 -47.3 -46.3 -45.9 -45.5 -46.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.8 1.7 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.7 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 7 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 64 66 67 72 71 64 49 44 44 41 37 36 36 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 37 41 42 44 50 53 54 53 55 51 48 39 33 33 44 850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 35 41 50 54 66 72 98 105 120 130 110 125 149 148 198 200 MB DIV 60 18 38 60 114 20 83 122 162 110 108 23 5 -19 -5 -30 -18 700-850 TADV 8 7 7 16 18 32 30 21 11 -4 -34 -51 -91 -106 -73 4 23 LAND (KM) 327 373 435 508 540 596 542 428 496 590 587 604 412 694 999 1305 1362 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.4 25.1 25.9 26.6 28.5 30.7 32.9 35.1 36.9 38.8 41.1 44.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.0 71.5 71.9 72.3 72.8 73.3 73.3 72.4 70.3 67.0 62.4 56.4 49.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 13 15 18 23 28 26 20 17 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 49 44 41 38 39 34 27 21 22 25 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -8. -18. -28. -39. -48. -55. -62. -69. -74. -77. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -18. -14. -12. -8. -5. -3. -0. 4. 10. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 11. 15. 17. 15. 17. 11. 5. -8. -16. -16. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -8. -11. -14. -11. -11. -14. -22. -25. -38. -47. -63. -71. -69. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 23.6 71.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/18/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.95 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 605.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 5.4% 3.6% 4.3% 2.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 6.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.4% 3.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/18/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/18/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 30( 53) 28( 66) 27( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 69 64( 89) 28( 92) 4( 92) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 117 113 112 109 106 109 109 106 98 95 82 73 57 49 51 66 18HR AGO 120 119 115 114 111 108 111 111 108 100 97 84 75 59 51 53 68 12HR AGO 120 117 116 115 112 109 112 112 109 101 98 85 76 60 52 54 69 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 107 104 107 107 104 96 93 80 71 55 47 49 64 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 98 101 101 98 90 87 74 65 49 41 43 58 IN 6HR 120 117 108 102 99 96 99 99 96 88 85 72 63 47 39 41 56 IN 12HR 120 117 113 104 98 94 97 97 94 86 83 70 61 45 37 39 54