* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/19/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 109 108 109 107 108 107 107 103 90 74 58 51 40 28 19 V (KT) LAND 115 112 109 108 109 107 108 107 107 103 90 74 58 51 40 28 19 V (KT) LGEM 115 112 110 110 110 112 114 112 105 94 77 60 46 36 29 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 25 21 10 15 7 17 24 28 38 47 52 45 51 49 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 0 0 2 4 0 2 3 5 3 4 2 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 326 326 321 324 335 291 230 242 221 220 224 222 232 234 254 268 294 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 30.0 30.5 30.4 29.3 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.6 26.8 23.4 20.0 20.7 18.7 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 162 169 171 172 157 145 139 134 134 124 96 82 85 79 71 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -49.8 -49.3 -49.4 -48.3 -48.2 -47.3 -47.9 -48.0 -49.3 -50.4 -50.7 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 62 62 66 69 71 74 71 59 45 34 35 30 22 22 40 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 39 41 42 44 46 50 52 55 56 51 44 38 34 27 18 11 850 MB ENV VOR 37 34 38 48 54 56 65 88 113 143 141 90 75 26 -59 -127 -115 200 MB DIV 38 40 46 79 87 14 48 137 72 117 -24 2 -34 -38 -33 -31 -45 700-850 TADV 6 4 26 18 12 24 24 15 2 -40 -21 -14 -49 -47 -48 -21 -13 LAND (KM) 340 392 458 533 539 619 467 387 536 608 640 647 556 410 616 938 1262 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.7 25.4 26.3 27.2 29.2 31.4 33.6 35.5 37.1 38.5 39.9 41.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.4 71.9 72.4 72.8 73.1 73.7 73.5 72.3 69.8 66.1 61.8 58.0 54.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 13 15 18 17 15 16 20 21 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 47 44 41 40 40 32 27 20 25 26 15 6 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 1. -7. -17. -26. -36. -45. -52. -59. -66. -72. -77. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -9. -13. -14. -15. -12. -8. -7. -4. -2. -1. 1. 5. 9. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 18. 19. 11. 0. -10. -14. -24. -35. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -6. -8. -7. -8. -8. -12. -25. -41. -57. -64. -75. -87. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 24.0 71.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/19/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 520.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.39 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 10.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 3.9% 2.4% 2.9% 2.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 4.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 2.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/19/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/19/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 28( 50) 28( 64) 27( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 64 47( 81) 30( 87) 2( 87) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 112 109 108 109 107 108 107 107 103 90 74 58 51 40 28 19 18HR AGO 115 114 111 110 111 109 110 109 109 105 92 76 60 53 42 30 21 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 111 109 110 109 109 105 92 76 60 53 42 30 21 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 106 104 105 104 104 100 87 71 55 48 37 25 16 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 94 95 94 94 90 77 61 45 38 27 15 DIS IN 6HR 115 112 103 97 94 92 93 92 92 88 75 59 43 36 25 DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 112 109 100 94 90 91 90 90 86 73 57 41 34 23 DIS DIS