* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/19/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 95 96 98 103 103 108 106 101 88 71 54 47 37 34 30 V (KT) LAND 100 95 95 96 98 103 103 108 106 101 88 71 54 47 37 34 30 V (KT) LGEM 100 94 92 92 95 102 108 108 99 86 69 51 39 32 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 16 12 14 4 18 15 27 38 37 46 48 40 41 48 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 4 -3 -4 5 0 2 0 6 8 6 0 -3 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 329 327 318 307 302 289 263 236 240 217 212 210 212 224 242 251 287 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.4 30.7 29.9 29.2 28.5 27.9 27.3 27.6 26.4 24.4 19.1 20.0 18.8 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 166 171 171 168 156 145 138 130 134 120 103 79 82 78 73 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 -49.7 -49.3 -48.6 -48.5 -47.6 -47.9 -48.2 -49.7 -51.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 62 65 69 68 70 71 70 57 42 33 32 28 25 38 46 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 40 40 42 47 49 54 55 55 48 41 34 32 27 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 44 51 52 66 63 106 126 148 131 82 78 15 -33 -29 -24 200 MB DIV 57 62 92 89 56 38 76 165 154 84 -1 27 -11 -17 10 -29 -36 700-850 TADV 0 11 13 9 14 20 22 15 6 -30 -40 0 -25 -32 -13 -19 -11 LAND (KM) 375 444 521 528 541 586 417 422 636 639 642 661 562 540 726 1020 1359 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.3 26.0 27.0 27.9 30.1 32.3 34.3 36.1 37.6 38.9 40.2 41.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.8 72.2 72.7 73.1 73.5 73.6 73.1 71.4 68.2 64.7 60.9 56.9 52.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 14 16 16 16 17 18 18 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 45 41 40 40 38 29 24 20 25 24 12 5 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -3. -11. -18. -26. -33. -40. -46. -51. -57. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. -0. 3. 6. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 1. -0. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 18. 19. 9. -2. -13. -16. -23. -25. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -5. -4. -2. 3. 3. 8. 6. 1. -12. -29. -46. -53. -63. -66. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 24.5 71.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/19/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.47 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.46 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.1% 5.4% 4.6% 4.4% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 2.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/19/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/19/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 17( 35) 21( 49) 25( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 46 61( 79) 21( 83) 21( 87) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 95 95 96 98 103 103 108 106 101 88 71 54 47 37 34 30 18HR AGO 100 99 99 100 102 107 107 112 110 105 92 75 58 51 41 38 34 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 99 104 104 109 107 102 89 72 55 48 38 35 31 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 97 97 102 100 95 82 65 48 41 31 28 24 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 86 86 91 89 84 71 54 37 30 20 17 DIS IN 6HR 100 95 86 80 77 79 79 84 82 77 64 47 30 23 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 95 95 86 80 76 76 81 79 74 61 44 27 20 DIS DIS DIS