* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/19/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 87 89 92 99 101 103 101 93 78 66 58 44 28 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 90 85 87 89 92 99 101 103 101 93 78 66 58 44 28 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 85 83 85 89 97 102 99 90 77 61 48 38 31 25 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 17 11 11 6 6 16 15 33 41 40 47 36 44 51 45 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 0 0 0 0 2 8 0 2 8 3 -1 2 4 1 5 SHEAR DIR 320 318 305 295 310 255 239 216 232 222 207 210 219 246 252 269 300 SST (C) 29.5 29.9 30.4 30.8 30.3 29.3 28.6 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.9 24.5 22.5 23.0 20.8 19.7 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 168 172 172 172 157 146 140 138 131 125 103 92 95 85 81 86 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -49.8 -49.3 -48.5 -48.0 -48.0 -47.6 -48.4 -50.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 9 7 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 65 68 65 67 67 71 62 46 37 40 35 28 21 26 29 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 41 41 44 48 50 53 54 51 44 40 39 32 23 15 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 48 52 48 53 70 81 127 142 135 98 102 96 22 -21 -125 -124 200 MB DIV 57 67 100 63 32 44 85 105 109 11 22 -25 -23 -57 -35 -93 -76 700-850 TADV 18 15 13 15 13 15 16 2 -11 -29 -12 -18 -42 -48 -74 -63 -61 LAND (KM) 439 535 535 561 612 436 372 518 557 563 606 605 458 584 925 1290 1640 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.2 27.1 28.2 29.2 31.5 33.6 35.5 37.4 38.9 40.0 41.3 42.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.2 72.7 73.1 73.5 73.8 73.9 72.5 70.0 66.6 62.8 59.0 55.2 51.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 11 13 15 17 16 16 16 17 19 19 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 41 39 40 37 32 28 21 25 27 17 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. -1. -8. -14. -21. -28. -34. -39. -44. -48. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 17. 14. 3. -4. -5. -16. -27. -36. -46. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -3. -1. 2. 9. 11. 13. 11. 3. -12. -24. -32. -46. -62. -73. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 25.2 72.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/19/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 404.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 7.4% 4.7% 3.7% 2.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 3.0% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/19/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/19/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 13( 31) 21( 46) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 85 87 89 92 99 101 103 101 93 78 66 58 44 28 17 DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 91 93 96 103 105 107 105 97 82 70 62 48 32 21 DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 88 91 98 100 102 100 92 77 65 57 43 27 16 DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 83 90 92 94 92 84 69 57 49 35 19 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 78 80 82 80 72 57 45 37 23 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 85 76 70 67 67 69 71 69 61 46 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 85 87 78 72 68 70 72 70 62 47 35 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS