* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/19/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 91 94 98 98 102 98 93 77 65 47 34 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 91 94 98 98 102 98 93 77 65 47 34 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 89 91 94 101 103 96 84 67 50 36 26 20 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 9 8 4 7 17 15 32 42 47 53 50 40 44 44 37 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -1 3 3 0 8 0 5 6 11 -2 3 0 -1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 317 298 315 333 309 269 217 241 228 232 228 234 249 263 264 292 338 SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.3 29.8 29.4 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.0 26.0 23.3 19.3 20.2 20.6 21.3 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 170 172 172 172 166 159 144 139 135 127 116 96 80 82 84 87 89 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.6 -48.7 -48.5 -47.4 -47.2 -48.0 -49.5 -50.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.0 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 9 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 67 65 67 69 69 70 55 38 33 29 22 24 29 35 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 41 41 43 46 46 52 52 52 45 41 32 26 17 8 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 47 56 52 52 66 63 119 122 153 124 97 68 -71 -193 -189 -165 -153 200 MB DIV 63 95 59 34 46 27 116 134 56 -49 -9 -37 -56 -45 -49 -59 -56 700-850 TADV 8 14 12 6 14 26 17 5 -18 -13 -15 -43 -42 -38 -32 -31 -26 LAND (KM) 534 539 546 618 558 395 404 593 592 576 608 500 556 821 1173 1565 1462 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.1 28.1 29.2 30.3 32.6 34.8 36.5 38.2 39.7 41.0 42.2 43.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.1 73.6 73.7 73.8 73.1 71.4 68.3 64.7 60.8 56.5 52.1 47.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 12 14 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 38 32 29 23 21 26 19 8 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. -2. -9. -15. -23. -30. -36. -39. -44. -48. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 12. 13. 13. 3. -4. -18. -27. -39. -50. -52. -51. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 4. 8. 8. 12. 8. 3. -13. -25. -43. -56. -71. -86. -90. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 26.1 72.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/19/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 383.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.53 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 11.1% 7.6% 6.2% 5.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.1% 2.1% 2.9% 1.8% 2.6% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.1% 3.3% 3.0% 2.4% 3.9% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.9% 5.5% 3.1% 2.0% 1.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/19/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/19/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 21( 39) 21( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 5( 23) 6( 28) 0( 28) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 91 94 98 98 102 98 93 77 65 47 34 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 91 94 98 98 102 98 93 77 65 47 34 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 89 93 93 97 93 88 72 60 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 84 84 88 84 79 63 51 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 71 75 71 66 50 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 69 73 69 64 48 36 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 91 82 76 72 76 72 67 51 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS