* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/20/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 99 105 108 110 109 102 87 69 53 55 52 38 30 26 17 V (KT) LAND 90 93 99 105 108 110 109 102 87 69 53 55 52 38 30 26 17 V (KT) LGEM 90 92 96 100 104 112 109 96 79 63 51 43 35 27 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 3 4 10 15 19 37 46 50 57 54 48 44 36 30 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 3 -2 3 8 0 4 11 13 6 4 5 2 1 5 SHEAR DIR 312 329 335 261 256 241 218 239 230 235 238 250 252 258 271 293 323 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.3 28.5 27.7 28.1 27.3 26.9 23.3 17.3 20.9 20.6 21.3 21.6 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 166 157 145 135 140 130 126 97 75 85 84 86 86 84 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -49.2 -48.4 -47.7 -47.2 -47.2 -47.7 -48.6 -49.8 -50.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 64 67 68 69 70 59 44 32 30 19 20 17 21 34 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 42 42 43 46 48 51 54 55 51 45 41 48 49 41 36 34 29 850 MB ENV VOR 54 47 51 60 67 91 129 144 157 116 133 -82 -115 -145 -160 -137 -120 200 MB DIV 99 69 47 43 51 54 92 88 -20 -2 -52 -51 -78 -37 -49 -13 -26 700-850 TADV 19 12 14 9 25 20 -1 -13 -23 -21 -43 -49 -55 -8 -24 -5 -23 LAND (KM) 566 584 627 554 455 369 533 537 526 566 557 583 829 1185 1580 1501 1326 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.3 29.3 30.5 31.6 33.9 36.1 37.7 39.3 40.6 41.6 42.6 43.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.8 73.2 73.7 73.5 73.4 72.3 69.8 66.4 62.7 58.3 53.5 48.4 43.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 20 17 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 31 28 26 21 29 28 15 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. -3. -11. -18. -25. -33. -37. -42. -47. -51. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 2. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 12. 7. -1. -7. 1. 2. -9. -17. -19. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 15. 18. 20. 19. 12. -3. -21. -37. -35. -38. -52. -60. -64. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 27.2 72.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/20/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 364.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.55 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 17.1% 12.1% 9.5% 7.7% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 11.7% 7.3% 7.4% 3.6% 5.1% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.2% 1.4% 0.9% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 10.1% 6.8% 6.3% 3.8% 5.6% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/20/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/20/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 21( 30) 28( 50) 29( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 7( 10) 1( 11) 0( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 93 99 105 108 110 109 102 87 69 53 55 52 38 30 26 17 18HR AGO 90 89 95 101 104 106 105 98 83 65 49 51 48 34 26 22 DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 92 95 97 96 89 74 56 40 42 39 25 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 83 85 84 77 62 44 28 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 73 72 65 50 32 16 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 93 84 78 75 75 74 67 52 34 18 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 93 99 90 84 80 79 72 57 39 23 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS