* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/20/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 95 100 103 107 103 95 79 61 51 54 42 28 23 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 88 95 100 103 107 103 95 79 61 51 54 42 28 23 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 89 93 98 103 100 90 74 58 45 36 27 21 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 7 7 15 16 31 41 51 66 67 57 51 38 28 23 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 1 0 0 6 1 1 8 21 5 6 -1 0 7 4 0 SHEAR DIR 294 278 244 266 255 219 235 230 238 232 239 243 246 268 280 312 344 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 29.7 29.4 29.4 28.4 28.4 27.0 26.0 23.2 16.4 21.0 20.6 18.7 20.1 18.8 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 164 159 159 144 145 127 117 96 74 86 84 78 82 77 77 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.6 -49.9 -50.1 -49.7 -48.7 -48.7 -47.6 -47.4 -47.2 -48.2 -49.4 -51.1 -53.1 -52.2 -50.0 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 8 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 69 70 68 52 38 34 26 28 20 17 30 44 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 42 43 46 46 46 52 52 52 49 46 45 51 47 37 34 31 25 850 MB ENV VOR 42 51 59 63 58 109 126 143 144 149 -4 -128 -183 -170 -122 -37 -11 200 MB DIV 64 52 57 47 19 113 114 73 -32 -16 -38 -70 -37 -46 8 -16 -4 700-850 TADV 18 18 14 21 26 24 -1 -11 -9 -19 -67 -27 -46 0 53 -21 -15 LAND (KM) 591 655 537 455 396 417 545 558 542 548 427 660 991 1372 1489 1165 921 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.5 30.6 31.7 32.8 35.0 37.0 38.6 40.2 41.9 43.3 44.5 45.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.2 73.4 73.6 73.3 72.9 71.2 68.1 64.4 60.3 55.6 50.4 45.1 40.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 14 16 18 18 20 20 19 19 19 17 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 36 30 28 26 22 22 27 14 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 2. -3. -10. -17. -25. -30. -35. -39. -42. -46. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. -4. -1. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 7. 9. 10. 5. 1. -2. 7. -1. -15. -19. -22. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 18. 22. 18. 10. -6. -24. -34. -31. -43. -57. -62. -65. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 28.3 73.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/20/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.58 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 17.0% 11.9% 9.5% 7.9% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 12.3% 8.4% 7.4% 3.8% 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.9% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 9.9% 6.9% 6.0% 3.9% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 19.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.3% 14.4% 5.9% 4.0% 2.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/20/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/20/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 17( 25) 25( 44) 27( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 8( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 95 100 103 107 103 95 79 61 51 54 42 28 23 20 DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 91 96 99 103 99 91 75 57 47 50 38 24 19 16 DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 86 89 93 89 81 65 47 37 40 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 78 82 78 70 54 36 26 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 70 66 58 42 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 70 66 58 42 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 88 95 86 80 76 72 64 48 30 20 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS